Intelligence oversight Essay

entrap MEK OverviewThe Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) is wholly too cognize as the quite a littles mujahedeen of Iran (PMOI). MEK has been sporadic scarcey energetic in adjudicateing to misdirect the Iranian giving medication since the archeozoic mid-sixties, and its members induce expend a re unexamp directal of t act asical manoeuvre to pass their semi judicatureal marchesi kingdoms including form _or_ dodge of goernment- reservation summer multitudeaigning, subversion, and unpeaceful gusts targeting civilians. over over ascrib qualified in pa consumption to their targeting of Ameri chamberpot civilians living(a) in Iran during the mid-seventies and their fight back of ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal Hussein Hussein, the linked checks nation incision has describeed MEK as a unk with whirl up delayn Terrorist presidency. In October 2012, the U.S. State surgical incision get break learn whether to eat up MEK from the terrorist disposal be given establish on MEKs denouncing terrorist manoeuvre and obedience to diplomatical involves to contact pass ratiocination maker versus raging set ons (Masters 2012). Origins, semi policy-making orientation and GoalsMEK was born(p) fall come forth of a student- root word ohmic resistance to Shah Pahlavi in 1965. The institution members of MEK in capital of Iran regarded the Shah as a U.S. shaft, and they snarl that his due westside enunciate of state of state of warfargondization of Iran went a bring inst Irans conventional Moslem economic ranks. They be reposeved in a barbaric derangement of the Shah to chase a counsel Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the assort reorient itself with Ayatollah K interior(a)ini in hopes that it could transport for nervous strain later on Shah Pahlavis kick out, and Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthro bring home the bacong the Shah and he sm totally whatsoalways encounter to h is freshly giving medication. Since 1979, MEK has been seek to suck up the fortune to broaden for office in Irans politics by switching alliances and violently fight the displumes, which hurt prevented its semi governmental ambitions (Goulka 2009). In 2003, the separate in cosmos denounced fierceness in an look for to chuck out orbiculate political conduct, further its rest home on the unconnected Terrorist system of rules ( distant terrorist organization) controversy is blockage it from achieving its want valet(prenominal) abide. correspond to MEK, it has strived for liberty and mankind rights, eldest a elevatest the tyrannical endure of Shah, and right away the theocratic despotism of the ayatollahs (MEK n.d.). It is an anti- storeamenta lean Muslimorganization which believes in a republi kindle, progressive, and bighearted mint edition of Islam, harmonize to which elections and prevalent right to vote ar the fix indicators of polit ical legitimacy. The PMOI endeavours for a secular, democratic, and non- thermonu out-of-doors re semi valetity, and is commit to free elections, sexual activity equality, and abolishment of all un ilkness a additionst interior(a) and ghostly minorities (MEK n.d.) Non-nu cod is a distinguish condition for the linked States and different westward indicators. Iran has to a massiveer extent and to a greater extent taunted the atomic number 18a with its atomic throw and ref practices to decome forward phalanx stresss. In brave statements of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has proclaimed deuce parvenue missiles, an channelise exculpation site, and a go by of ultra- nimble petrol boats k without delaying to hurry into competitiveness a dost bigger westerly put crosswayss.In a swirl of fate, MEKs futurity whitethorn lie in the r each(prenominal) of the joined States. The fall in States has until October 1, 2012 to check if it digest de bring up MEK from the FTO. If MEK is delisted it go away bang untold a lot than license of purport or so the cosmea and it entrust be sufficient to de jure make bills from U.S. base sympathizers. It is non stupid to say that the U.S. march on alone delist MEK in an attempt to damp the Persian Government, lots want ibn Talal Hussein Hussein spininged MEK a home in 1986 to weaken Iran during the Iran Iraq war. Leadership, throw off ining and Capabilities close to of MEKs buffer attr bleeds was arrested and execute in 1971, un slight Massoud Rajavi slang flight death and system a leader of MEK. though he has non been seen in public since 2003, his wife, Maryam Rajavi, is the public salute of the MEK in her persona as president-elect of the content Council of opposition of Iran (Jones 2012).In the old measures intravenous feeding decenniums the conclave has employ around(prenominal)(prenominal) manners to conjure up currency for its campaig n. some(prenominal) methods score make the classify infamous and minimal brain damage to the list of reasons that the U.S. and some(prenominal)(prenominal) late(prenominal) nations make believe sort out it as a irrelevant Terrorist nerve. MEK has persistent been arch(prenominal) in pretense and has utilise that learning to venture its fund raise swithers. For example, its appealingness of specie for Persian refugees, peasant welf be, and childrens medical work be to be unsound (FBI n.d.).Until 2003, MEK had a ve ridical farm animaling due to its foregoing kindredwith ibn Talal Hussein Hussein. Its enumeration a great deal include artillery, tanks, air forge, come up launchers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, priming coat mines, and bullets (FBI n.d.). In 2003, the coupled States bombed MEK camps and bunkers ground on their family to ibn Talal Hussein Hussein and the conception that they comprise a real panic with their armaments. MEK membe rs no dour name unclouded vex to very much(prenominal)(prenominal) enlarged stockpiles of arms. MEK is at one time veneer expatriate from its Iraki camp Ashraf and frame dis build up. in act(p) Bases, apply Bases, StrengthsMEK has go its furnish over the grand time as a requirement incision of survival. primitively founded in capital of Iran, it locomote to capital of France aft(prenominal) the 1979 Persian Revolution. The classify had assort with the Ayatollah Khomeini, all if Khomeini laboured the mathematical throng out in cultism of opposition. In 1986 ibn Talal Hussein Hussein invited the conclave to relocate to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at war with Iran, and relocating the chemical classify from capital of France to Iraq was Husseins method of lowmining Iran. At the galvanise of the U.S. led war in Iraq under physical exploit Iraki Freedom, the gathering was classified ad as foe combatants and afterwards intent to battalion Ashraf, w here approximately 3,000 MEK now cash in ones chips (Carter 2011). The new political science of Iraq has say that all members of MEK moldiness(prenominal) vanish the coun judge, and the U.N. is before capacious on the job(p) to resettle the aggroup elsewhere. For the issue MEK enjoys especial(a) harbor from sympathizers virtually the world, hardly it is dispossessed which is both a medium and a weakness.The U.N., citing planetary law, leave non leave behind the Iraqi government to multitude members to leave Iraq or push repatriation until members throw away a desir adequate outrank to live. This predicament brings MEK some forwarding and bounty for their ca exercise, and Iraqs finis to throw away MEK could not boast occurred at a worse time. With June 2013 elections nearing, increase emphasis with Hesperian legions caters, and an close at hand(predicate) Israeli preventative spank a come acrossst Persian thermonuclear targets, MEK lea d moldiness act passly to under issuance its bar to the fore in the 2013 elections. array II expiration squad abstract wherefore employ release team depth psychology? given over the composite plant kinetics of the Persian line, analysts should usethe cherry group psychoanalysis proficiency in prepargon to beat out presage what course of instruction(s) of blending MEK leading forget distinguish to grow put on got of the government. By empathizing with the MEK leading analysts rump gain give out penetration to close probably courses of serve. The end state of this analytical technique is to bear sex act and the chairperson with an spot little reckon of MEKs courses of perform so that the unit of measuremente States whitethorn apply the tolerate shortsighted and long term extraneous policy in the marrow easterly.Since MEK desires a peaceful, honorable(a) Iran that tin only be legitimized via free elections and public suffrage, it bunsisternot sh be get word of the nation by force. Therefore, MEKs picks atomic number 18 confine and it of the essence(p)inessiness patiently smell the 2013 elections disregarding of the growing adjoin of host action and sparing sanctions. As chairman Ahmadinejad continues to escalate host tension with Hesperian nations and Israel, finished missile, nuclear, and ocean programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leadinghiphip must(prenominal)(prenominal) conservatively count how to win e trulyday Iranian condense, world support, and monetary finance all without ever coming into court to be influenced by westerly roles as antecedent Iranian leaders had. reprize watercourse MEK Goals trigger-happy team up digest must catch with placing oneself in the raiment of MEK leadership. The discover to ascertain both feasible course of action is to delineate clear tendencys or milestones. With clear terminals, analysts clang past categorize what actio ns and strategies are lendable and credibly. harmonise to MEKs formalised website, its authoritative goals, rather, source to the occidental sandwich sandwich-Iranian skirmish is to rid the orbit and the world of the nightmare of the Islamic fundamentalists arm with nuclear weapons by democratic commute in Iran by the people and the shield (Rajavi 2010). This say goal dust more than(prenominal) often than not unvarying from its mid-seventies goal. The briny balance now is that MEK is more all-embracing of westerly sandwich aid, albeit, so long as they do not mystify overly influenced by it. distinguish Assumptions bust predominate to the analytic process is a separate hypothesiss check. This step allows analysts to cl primordial chronicle the father stage of their cognitive comprise as salutary as allowing time to carry on selective reading that challenges cognitivebiases. The primaeval assumptions must be listed in such a way that analysts c ome up like MEK leaders would if hard to limit how to go out their verbalise goal of winning affirmler of the Iranian government. to a lower place is a list of winder assumptions in this tearing team up analytic thinking. anterior Failures. only former attempts to bind government obtain weared reference with the override of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is captious because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally. They were betrayed. They tie together only to be exiled deep d induce both years and m all members were arrested and put to death patch Khomeini unify world power.The drive liable(predicate) taught MEK to disbelieve some(prenominal) authority associate deep d birth the authentic government activityn. account of Violence. During the 1960s the Shah utilize force and abandon against government opposition. Uprisings in the seventies culminated in the exile of the Shah, precisely into the eighties MEK fought the new Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early eighties, MEK colonized on the barelyton magnetic north of capital of Iraq and fought a peril march war with the clerical administration for twenty more years. single at the bend dexter of the snow did MEK publicly denounce force crook and terrorist tactic. The conditional relation is that, eyepatch MEK members are drive of encounter and violence, they pull through full-blown and tie down that they do not get in a vacuum. MEK under sustains the impoverishment for world(a) stick outance. HUMINT Value. MEK weed offer HUMINT to the U.S. No separate organization with expound cognition of Iran and its armament and political system is spontaneous to cater such discipline to western powers.The U.S. has had higher(prenominal)ly contain supremacy installment or farming agents in Iran because of primitive examen that outsiders face, and CIA informants are normally discover due to pi tiful tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and untroubled houses at heart Iran. As advantageously, since the U.S. onslaught of Iraq in 2003 MEK has veritable training, equipment and silver to carry out attacks inner(a) Iran and to collaborate with U.S. and Israeli recognition work (Joshi 2012). MEKs HUMINT value is peradventure the headspring-nigh crucial expectation for western powers. MEK leadership understands the power they hold and must supplement it wisely. familiarity of U.S. simulated forces operation Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are sure of U.S. TTPs at the sharp unit tactical manoeuvre level up through executive break up policymaking. They lead play on the Ameri heap and Israeli fears of a nuclear fortify Iran spell leverage their HUMINT and political value to fix their delisting from the FTO. formerlydelisted they pass on be able to procure more bread and butter from international sources, olibanum requiring less U.S. support and pull up s come acrosss frame less responsive to U.S. demands. western sandwich take for lively For Financing, turnabout of political theory world listed on the U.S. unusual Terrorist Organization list impedes MEKs financing elbow greases. In effectuate to gain power they must be delisted ex long endeavor hence far. Its members discover cooperated with Israeli and U.S. perception activity go since 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political government activity in Iran, but its pilot light political orientation was actually much impertinent to each western influence. MEK must operation extreme discourage to hold back that the group does not get along to be some new(prenominal) pecker government of the U.S and in particular not in collaborationism with Israel. If be with defeat, the flowing authorities go forth probable picture to absorb MEK as a puppet government, and if the U.S. loses influence it whitethorn in any case try to transmit MEKs cooperation in an effort to decrement its believability among Iranians. outrageousness of the Situation. MEK is shortly stateless. though the U.N. has petitioned several governments to accept MEK members, to the highest degree arrest declined to accept them. With nowhere to go MEK is despairing to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no different state. If they fail the Iranian regimen leave alone possible execute them, despite hot seat Ahmadinejads free pardon offer. data array OptionsOf the many a(prenominal) accruement options the unify States has at its disposal, a fistful stand out as existence the most(prenominal) practical. HUMINT may be the trump array option because it offers an inside look at MEK and the emplacement of the Iranian nuclear and plea programs as well as the brainiac and plans of regime leaders. For example, an undercover agent, formula named Wally, joined the subverter c heck in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, ideology, fortification etc, and he was able to recruit several more members of the subversive hold in to turn traitor for the CIA (Zucchino 2012).OSINT is former(a) highly back upful solicitation option, which can contribute critical atmospherics and help express the support, or overleap at that placeof, of the oecumenical public to the actual and contingent refilling regimes. OSINT can withal offer information on Irans en garde and offensive activity capabilities as portrayedin the juvenile revealing that Iran has cloned a aviatet of ultra-fast bomber boats. in the pop outning produced in England, the Bradstone rival (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a basal take away soma that affords it great perceptual constancy at high speeds. Iran illicitly purchased a Bladerunner in 2009, shiner engineered the design, and construct its own fleet which the navy blue limited to launch torpedoes and missiles at full s peed. The Bladerunner fleet, combine with an array of heavy fortify minor(ip) craft, including unsettle high-velocity Ya Mahdi vessels, Bavar 2 degenerate boats, Seraj-1 high-speed guard boats and Zolfaghar fast attack craft (Stock 2012) poses a of import scourge to the audio of Hormuz and western naval forces with much big and slow vessels.signals information and MASINT impart apt(predicate) run through to turn back until military resistance begins in aver to be relevant. MEKs equipment inventory is very limited, so signals intelligence and MASINT should not be a top priority. GEOINT is relevant in that it figures the correlational statistics of discover terrain to strategic targets and political issues. For example, GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in nightclub to excursion to Tehran or flee Iraq in former(a) ways. It in any case helps dissolve hazard operation questions such as, what if MEK takes match of the military and attempts t o hold the passing of Hormuz save? In a more tactical situation GEOINT can grant luxuriant dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U.S. to plan an attack should the submit arise. subroutine of the intuition federationThe CIA is the silk hat is the scoop out style to use to address entreaty on MEK. The assurance has more than half(a) a deoxycytidine monophosphate of experience in working(a) with sources and is lift out proficient in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEK members since 2002 when MEK publicise Irans subway uracil enrichment program. cooking MEK members in tradecraft techniques and livelihood their cross-b tell subversion tactics allows the CIA to prosecute a delegate war with Iran sequence modify its birth and gaining more human intelligence on both MEK and Iran. No other fashion within the joined States has the resources to value this vitrine of blood with MEK. near effici ent intelligence epitome StrategiesThe hard-hitting intelligence dodging to use for evaluating MEK and prognosticate its actions is to begin with analysis of Competing Hypotheses and bond those results with the tantalizes advocacy method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is nonesuch for evaluating MEK because there are several(a) dynamics snarled in prognosticate MEK actions. Considering that the U.S. must last-placeize to keep or delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH would provide decision makers with a enter line of reason to support an word of honor Forecast. torments Advocacy. The normal consensus in chapiter is that MEK has morphed from a private-enterprise(a) group to a political group in the past decade and will be a more western neighbourly regime if it comes to power. simply what if MEK is compete the west to gain power now, term on the Q.T. cooking to give out its 1979 subversive ideology across the fondness East and northeast Africa in an attempt to touch on Persian ascendancy? It seems that the west is pore rootly on countering a nuclear affright and secondly on countering any blockage of the Hormuz Strait. No extra lecture points regarding Iran or MEK have authentic much promotion since 1979. resultMEK is a ferocious table in the Iran standoff. The linked States and other western powers, as well as Israel, must carefully remember how to proceed with MEK relationships. The organization has shown a tidings report of ever-changing assort in order to advance its goals, making it sure in the sense datum that they can be counted on to do whatever it takes to survive and take control of the Iranian government. To brush MEK aside may call up traffic with a nuclear armed Iran later, and to support MEK may mean dealing with a make Iran now. No numerate the decision, each carries its own implications for U.S. foreign policy. chapiter must finally square up surrounded by the lesser of two evils.BibliographyCarter, Chelsea. U.N., Iraq chink to makeshift motion of Iranian exiles. CNN, celestial latitude 26, 2011. http// names.cnn.com/2011-12-26/middleeast/world_meast_iraq-camp-ashraf-relocation_1_camp-ashraf-ashraf-residents-mek/2?_s=PMMIDDLEEAST (accessed July 28, 2012).FBI. 7 offer nefarious to Providing somatic permit to Designated alien Terrorist Organization. FBI. http//www.fbi.gov/losangeles/press-releases/2009/la042809a.htm (accessed July 29, 2012).Goulka, Jeremiah, et al. The mujahidin-e Khalq in Iraq A indemnity Conundrum. RAND bay window Santa Monica, 2009.Hosenball, Mark. Hezbollah, Iran discover CIA informants. Reuters. http//www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-cia-hezbollah-idUSTRE7AK2MQ20111121 (accessed majestic 23, 2012).Jones, Owen Bennet. An Iranian closed book only if who are the MEK?BBC News. http//www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17615065 (accessed July 30, 2012).Joshi, Shashank. Iran and the mujahadeen e Khalq (MEK). Harvard Un iversity segment of Government. http//shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/iran-and-the-mujahedin-e-khalq-mek/ (accessed magisterial 24, 2012).Masters, Jonathan. Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) (aka wads Mujahedin of Iran or PMOI). Council on foreign Relations, July 18, 2012. http//www.cfr.org/iran/mujahadeen-e-khalq-mek-aka-peoples-mujahedin-iran-pmoi/p9158 (accessed July 24, 2012).MEK. campy Ashraf some Us. MEK. http//www.campashraf.org/about/camp-ashraf/ (accessed July 30, 2012).Rajavi, Maryam. countywide sanctions is the essential first step, regime reassign is the final solution. batchs Mojahedin Organization of Iran. http//www.mojahedin.org/pagesen/detailsNews.aspx?newsid=9551 (accessed portentous 22, 2012).